Why France could be on the verge of a Sixth Republic

As he called a controversial snap election in the Summer of 2024, it was little to the knowledge of Emmanuel Macron that his decision would ignite France’s worst political crisis since the creation of its Fifth Republic. It’s so drastically bad that it could lead to the formation of a sixth.

Despite its affluent history and now stable nature, Europe certainly isn’t immune to political issues and economic crises. Greece has been the subject of many financial collapses since the turn of the century, created by decades of overreliance on tourism and loans, as well as overall mismanagement and corruption.

Yes, it has recently seen success, but Spain’s economy has been shown to be particularly weak in the last decade, with a chronic need for foreign visitors and drastically high unemployment rates. Even Italy is often laughed at by its fellow major European nations for its political instability, with chaotic short-lived governments often dominating headlines.

What is rare however, is for a state with the sheer global magnitude and influence as France to face such dire mounting problems. In an era where Russian threat is ever-increasing, and US protection is seemingly ever-decreasing, three nations have emerged as the new powers of the continent. Germany, the United Kingdom and indeed France have been united on key issues such as the war in Ukraine and immigration throughout 2025 so far.

Not only are the nations of Merz, Starmer and Macron aligned, they are also broadly comparable when it comes to economy, population, standard of living and political structure. This makes it all the more surprising that France is in grave, potentially terminal danger of becoming the new “sick-man” of Europe, despite its past stability, prosperity and well-oiled parliamentary system.

The problem may lie with that very system- it is no longer the well-oiled machine of the past. To put it bluntly, the machine is falling apart, crumbling whilst still in action, with parts of the mechanism flying in random, dangerous directions. And this isn’t at the hands of uncommon circumstance- in fact, the National Assembly is lucky that it has happened this late. The Fifth Republic is on its knees.

It goes without saying that France’s western European neighbours also have their own pressing problems and imperative issues, but the numbers tell a story of a different level of political difficulty being felt by the French at this moment in time, a level that could very well lead to drastic reform.

Perhaps the starkest indication of this is France’s national debt- it currently stands at 114% of its GDP, the third highest in the Eurozone, behind the aforementioned Greece and Italy. This is equivalent to almost 50,000 euros per French citizen. The state’s deficit reached 5.8% of its GDP in 2024- only bettering Romania and Poland with 9.3% and 6.6% respectively.

The picture painted by these statistics is a particularly dark one, especially considering that Germany, the nation closest to France in the Eurozone, has national debt that is 68% of its GDP and a deficit of 3.2%. Of course, this leads to huge questions of how the French political system has let it get to this state, and why the National Assembly is currently in such a state of paralysis that little to nothing can be done to rectify it. The simple answer is the structure of the Fifth Republic- the detailed answer is how this structure has become so damaging.

For most of the sixty-seven-year period of the Fifth Republic, it has been incredibly successful, shown by the fact that there’s only been eight presidents in that time- a stark contrast to much of Europe. Charles de Gaulle’s main priority when creating the system was to ensure total stability, with the reform coming off the back of twenty-one administrations in twelve years of the Fourth Republic.

Everything about the Fifth Republic aims to turn it towards a singular outcome- a hyper-powerful president who leads an absolute majority in parliament. The notorious two-round system forces voters to gather around the most consensual choice- something that has proved to be a huge hurdle for far-right National Rally through the years. Since President Jacques Chirac, scheduled legislative elections have taken place immediately after the presidential vote, once again attempting to link an ultra-powerful president with an ultra-powerful majority-holding party. When this power is channelled successfully, the Fifth Republic is a purring, smooth-working machine, becoming a glorified consultive body serving the government’s agenda.

When the system’s ideal National Assembly configuration is not the election’s outcome, the fundamental flaws and blind spots of the Fifth Republic become glaringly obvious to see. If parliament is dissolved and an opposition party takes over, cohabitation is created, leading to deep, often inescapable paralysis. This situation is even more dire in the event of a dreaded hung parliament- parties have no institutional interest or cultural inclination towards compromise, and when there is any sign of it, it is viewed with suspicion.

A somewhat tribal, polar-opposite culture of hate and intransigence is created within parliament. Instead of trying to contribute to their nation, most party leaders instead begin to prepare for the next presidential election in an attempt to seize monarch-like power in a state with a troubled history with its kings and queens. After all, power is so skewed towards the president that even if parties chose to co-operate, it would be near impossible to have any influence.

This leads us back to Emmanuel Macron’s ill-fated 2024 snap election. The Ensemble leader chose the gambling spin of a dangerous wheel, hedging his bets on the red of a majority- instead the result was the black of a three-bloc hung parliament. In hindsight, his holy grail of an absolute majority was an ambitious and unlikely aim. Of course, a man of Macron’s stature will have made an educated decision, however it is one that appeared to many as being vitally the opposite, with the seemingly limitless rise of National Rally, and recently resurgent left providing great competition for Ensemble- in many ways, they were weaker than when they failed to get a majority in the election prior.

Macron’s wild punt of a long-shot not only went way wide of the goal- it spun towards the corner flag. He tried to aim the gun of a snap election at a tiny target many metres away, but the only thing he shot was his own foot. Melenchon’s New Popular Front shocked many, emerging as victors with 182 seats, loudening shouts for the president to appoint a socialist prime minister- the alliance was only formed a few weeks before the election itself, consisting of la France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Green Party and the Communist Party.

Far-right National Rally, who haven’t done much but trouble Macron’s party this decade, were predicted by most to win the election, and indeed won the first round, but ended up dropping to third in the second- Le Pen and Bardella’s party should still be happy with a historic number of seats though, with 143 creating a far-right bloc. Macron’s Ensemble, who aimed to improve on the 245 seats they won in 2022, dropped all the way to 168, meaning that the president’s party are now only the second largest in the National Assembly- a far cry from the absolute majority lauded by De Gaulle’s Fifth Republic.

Other than Les Republicans, who are centre-right, the majority of the French National Assembly is now divided into three pretty much even blocs, each of which couldn’t be much further on the spectrum from its counterparts. French politics is in constant gridlock- it’s in a seemingly endless paralysis, that unless politicians begin to change their attitudes, will only be resolved at the next presidential and legislative elections in 2027. Saying that, I wouldn’t go betting that there won’t be yet another snap election in the next two years.

Greed and self-interest appear to dominate the minds of France’s biggest politicians at this moment in time, with a burn-it-all-down mentality breeding and rapidly multiplying throughout the National Assembly. The parliament’s members are choosing their own personal aims over seemingly dead-ended co-operation- to a point you can’t truly blame them, with the system providing precious little other alternatives.

Marine le Pen may have already threatened to topple whatever prime minister Macron puts in front of her, but many will argue that the Fifth Republic reduces parliament to powerlessness. Insurgent political forces, such as the left and far-right, are growing throughout France by challenging the conventional, however without proportional representation, or a similar system, it is near impossible to have any real influence. Many French people now look longingly over at nations such as Germany, where coalitions are part of their political DNA- Macron implored lawmakers in France to be a little more like their German counterparts when with Merz is August. Even the basket-case political state of Italy now looks stable when put side-by-side with France.

To get into such a dire situation, something must be seriously wrong with France’s biggest party, especially when the Fifth Republic is quite literally designed to give it an absolute majority. For much of his tenure, Emmanuel Macron has been seen as a good president. He was elected in 2017, promising to liberalise the economy, create jobs and end inequality by adopting a pragmatic “cherry-picking” style, where the government selected ideas from both the left and right. Initially, this appeared to work- this is none the more recognisable through Macron’s positive image throughout the world. But then crisis hit. And then there was more crises.

The yellow vest anti-government revolt, Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine rocked French politics in relatively quick succession. Public support for the government, which was once high, has eroded catastrophically quickly for Ensemble and Macron- this lack of faith has also extended to inside parliament, with scrambled together, make-shift cabinets coming under immense scrutiny and painstaking votes of no confidence in recent years. The President’s “cherry-picking” centre style was once seen as innovative and promising, but now has created a sense of no direction. It has contributed greatly to the rapid rise of the far-right (opposition opponents National Rally in particular), which is something that Macron promised to halt when elected in 2017.

Polls this month show that only 14-16% of votes have confidence in the President, and even his global presence, which had previously been seen as a great strength, now longer lifts his ratings. There is immense concern that he lacks empathy for people’s daily concerns- with a financial crisis of debt, social crisis of inequality and general weakness of government and his party, Emmanuel Macron is being pulled from all sides.

His second term now risks appearing chaotic, ineffective and even disastrous- something none the more obvious than when looking at the five prime ministers that have served the president in the last two years. Phillipe, Castex, Borne, Attal, Barnier, Bayrou and Lecornu have all fallen throughout Macron’s eight-year reign, many failing to pass a budget, one of the most basic parts of government. The budget has proved to be more than a basic issue for Macron however, and has become quite the thorn in his government’s side. Bayrou lasted only nine months after the National Assembly refused to back his austerity budget, which aimed to slah government spending by 44 billion euros. Stocks have fallen sharply on the Paris exchange, deepening concerns over the lack of co-operation and cohesion from mainstream parties when trying to tackle France’s dire economic woes.

Emmanuel Macron is quickly running out of options. Lecornu’s resignation came as a shock when he departed just hours after forming a cabinet, yet it was even more surprising when the president chose to reappoint him mere days later. This was the result of a crucial fork in the round for Macron, where he had three options- appoint another PM, dissolve the National Assembly once again, or resign himself. Despite several parties clamouring for early elections, the president has always said that he will refuse to stand down before 2027, and yes, Lecornu may have resigned a few days prior, but he was probably still the safest option.

The prime minister remains an ultra-Macron loyalist, almost as much as an embodiment of the centre than the president himself- when he was first appointed, Lecornu was seen as his last resort. Many of Macron’s critics called for him to appoint a socialist, citing the fact that perhaps the left deserves a go in power, but socialist administration itself would not really be viable, and would not take long to fall. If Macron was to pick his 2024 option once again, the snap election would be even more of a rout for Ensemble- almost everything points to a monumental victory for Marine le Pen’s hard-right National Rally.

Following his comically short-lived departure from power, Sebastien Lecornu took the opportunity to highlight French politics’ fundamental, agonising flaws. He sharply criticised the “partisan appetites” of the National Assembly’s factions, saying that “they are all behaving as if they had an absolute majority”. The prime minister claimed that he is ready for compromise, but as long as all other parties desired to adopt their programmes in entirety, nothing good would come from French politics. Perhaps most vividly, he slammed leaders saying they not to be more humble, and “cast some egos aside”. Lecornu talked an awful lot of sense.

French politics is in paralysis. If the Fifth Republic stands still for much longer, it will fall. And until those in the highest positions of the National Assembly begin to change their ideas, it will continue to be stationary. Melenchon’s left claimed the most seats, and a huge part of his campaign was the desire for France to transition to a Sixth Republic- given that the current system acts as a constant hindrance for National Rally, the right may not be against it either. The failings of Emmanuel Macron’s ruling Ensemble party have swung open the curtains to reveal the brutal reality of the Fifth Republic. It is a system fundamentally designed for an absolute majority- Ensemble are far from that. In any other configuration, it spirals and melts into a hapless mess of intransigence and hate. The surge of the left and far-right throughout Europe certainly doesn’t seem like a rise that will halt, or even slow in the near future, meaning that the Fifth Republic could prove to be untenable.

Great public dissatisfaction has been created throughout France by the nation’s political crisis- this unrest will continue to grow and multiply as problems deepen, and the desire for a Sixth Republic will no doubt follow similar suit. At the moment the future of France appears shrouded in mystery. It could continue its trajectory under the current system, and wind up in hospital as the sick man of Europe, or it could confront the reality of a new constitution, which will no doubt have to be constructed through great difficulty. France’s political crisis is beginning to grab more and more headlines, with even more people coming to realise that change may be needed. It may not be long before the French public has had enough.

Hues of orange, yellow, red and pink are beginning to creep into the sky of France’s politics. The new dawn of a Sixth Republic may be coming.

Thanks for reading my latest blog post on Your World Explored by me, Lewis Defraine. Feel free to offer your support, or even constructive criticism in the comments section below. A like would be greatly appreciated, and if you’d like to receive more articles from Your World Explored, you can also subscribe. Also, you can take part in the poll down below.