In the Spring of 2025, the Conservative Party was declared dead. Countless media outlets found great pleasure in emphasising the pitiful state of the Tory institution, as the left danced on the grave of an entity that had battled them for decades. For many, the autopsy detailed a very clear point— Reform had murdered the opposition, replacing them as the dominant party of the right, just as Labour had supplanted the Liberals a century prior. To be frank, it was Farage-assisted suicide. Fourteen eventful years of turbulence had brutally shattered public trust and support for the Tories, destroying the reputation forged by centuries of successful power.

The woman tasked with rebuilding this crumbling machine was Kemi Badenoch, who dissatisfied and disappointed many observers almost immediately. Her decision to play the long-term game and not implement policy with pace was quickly deemed a poor one, possibly even the blow that finally struck the Conservative party stone cold. Reform did not have to be brilliant to surge past the Tories. The door was opened wide for them, as they were met by the courteous bows of the many MPs who had played their part in the demise of a staple of politics.

The Summer brought stagnation, but on this occasion, a good kind. Rapidly decreasing YouGov polling figures finally flatlined at 17%, halting a decline that threatened the very existence of the Conservatives as a mainstream party.

While Starmer’s Labour government began to rapidly embroil itself in internal conflict, Badenoch found slight stability and respite in churning waters, as the spotlight was steered away from the demise of the Tories towards the dire shortcomings of their arch-rivals.

Autumn saw an unprecedented chapter in the Tories’ 2025. In years to come, the party conference in Manchester will likely be seen as the remarkable turning point in the decline of the Conservatives, coming just before a rise in the polls. It could be the vital springboard for future growth and success.

Despite this, a dreary, uninspiring atmosphere played in the media’s death narrative further— it felt as if the few that bothered to attend were witnessing the party’s funeral. This pathetic, insipid vigil was a far cry from the glory days of an institution.

The Conservative Party laid weakened, wounded and written off in a dark corner of the political ring. The referee’s count neared ten, but they weren’t knocked out. They will stand to throw punches again, enthused with renewed optimism. Some may have enjoyed heralding the demise of the Tories, but it was short-sighted to say their time in the mainstream was up. The old lion still has teeth, and whilst the glossy, radical mane of the Reform party will continue to capture the public mind, the Conservatives will always bite back.

For a tenure that has stuttered and failed to truly begin, Badenoch’s conference address was a huge moment in her fledgling career. A miserable mood of silence and remorse was punctured by a speech of strong delivery and confidence, bookending the ineffective, undecisive Kemi to make way for a fierce, abrasive opponent. Robert Jenrick, the man who’d likely be seen as leader-elect should Badenoch leave her post, said that he was “fully supporting” of her leadership, believing she is the “right person” for the role.

The leader of the opposition also finally unveiled some new policy at the conference, notably promising to scrap stamp duty. As well as delighting Angela Rayner, this gave the public a welcome insight into who Kemi Badenoch really is, and exactly what she stands for.

In a political environment that lacks clarity and direction, a “figurehead” breed of leader is more important than ever— we need people who can mould a party in their own vision.

Thatcher was one of the greatest to do this, and there are shades of Margaret beginning to edge into the persona of Badenoch. When a former Tory adviser said “Kemi hates doing the media” in February, her communication style was under intense scrutiny. She was viciously labelled as abrasive, too direct and even un-personable, casting shadows of doubt over whether she was the correct type of person to become prime minister.

By Winter, Badenoch’s weaknesses have been flipped on their heads. Her “tough love” strategy is finally bearing precious fruit, as we begin to witness the benefits of her grit and competitiveness. Confidence is key for the fluency and effectiveness of Kemi— at present, levels are high, and it’s a joy to behold. She is now flying through media appearances with crisp conviction, and has at long last begun to thrive in the role of opposition.

The Tory response to Reeves’ bemoaned budget was politics at its finest, and Kemi Badenoch at her absolute best. Eloquent, merciless and pugnacious, the Conservative leader’s parliament speech stunningly indicated that she had at last mastered her role in parliament. Furthermore, it was also a rare occasion where the Tories led the ruthless charge on Labour, following months of Reform challenge. Pitiless precision demolished the much-criticised Chancellor, resonating with the millions angered by the shortcomings of this government.

This public support has extended to the bigger picture. After the decline was eventually halted in the Summer, the Tories began a steady rise in the polls throughout Autumn— by Christmas, Wikipedia’s poll aggregator suggested that backing for the Conservatives had overtaken Labour for the first time since 2024’s election woes. As the success of Polanski’s Greens continues to split the left’s vote, it is now conceivable that both 2029’s victor and runner-up will come from the right— something that has never happened for either side before.

Badenoch’s YouGov net favourability ratings now portray her as the second most popular leader of a major UK party, only behind Farage, meaning that, like the Tories, she is now the best of those lagging behind a seemingly unstoppable Reform machine.

That being said, the newly emergent right-wing powerhouse is faltering. The party has been rocked by numerous scandals— Farage’s racism allegations, campaign finance issues and a Wales leader bribed by Russia have hit sore spots, greatly increasing public doubt over their ethical credentials. A population without full trust in their rivals could be exactly what the Conservatives require, as the scars of their 14-year reign continue to trouble them into the future.

Perhaps maintaining the role of opposition is a more realistic 2029 target for the Tories. However, Reform no longer seem invincible, with general election victory appearing far less inevitable than in the Summer. TLDR News claims that there is some evidence that Farage’s party have met their polling ceiling, and YouGov voting intention points are now even beginning to decline. For two weeks in mid-September, the YouGov’s gap between the UK’s right-leaning competitors stood at an abysmal eleven points. It is now seven. Politics is a game that moves quickly. It enthrals and never ceases to surprise, meaning a sensational Conservative comeback remains firmly on the cards.

Kemi Badenoch is growing into a formidable, fluent and ferocious figure in the commons. Soon, she could have a clear vision. On top of the conference promises—such as the abolition of stamp duty, cuts on borrowing and taxes, and the repealing of the 2008 Climate Change Act— a new raft of policy is expected in early 2026. As the Tory leader settles into the role of opposition, we may at long last understand what her party truly stands for.

As the Green party’s stellar rise takes them higher, the left vote will remain split, piling pressure on a now notoriously poor Labour government. Many would be astounded if Starmer manages to stagger his way through the coming year, but unlike before, Badenoch’s position feels comfortable.

The Conservative Party has at last found sacred stability, which is of underrated value as its rivals hit roadblocks. Nevertheless, they are certainly yet to pull up any trees. Questions surrounding Badenoch would quickly arise if local election results disappoint, but the ones posed at present are slowly being answered.

The great comeback must be whispered about cautiously. However, being a steady, moderate presence could prove to be a powerful weapon in a time of division, and if Reform begins to push voters away, the Tories must be waiting with warm arms opened wide. The days of inexorable decline may finally be gone.

2025 was a rollercoaster, and the coming months certainly won’t be plain sailing, but 2026 can be a good year for the Conservative Party.

Thanks for reading my latest blog post on Your World Explored by me, Lewis Defraine. Feel free to offer your support, or even constructive criticism in the comments section below. A like would be greatly appreciated, and if you’d like to receive more articles from Your World Explored, you can also subscribe. Also, you can take part in the poll down below.